I’m not as optimistic as you are quite yet. The next election will be the real test of if our institutions actually hold and I’m still not sure how that is going to play out.
If there is a real leadership change in 2028 a lot of very hard structural change will be needed if we don’t want a repeat by another billionaire backed hand puppet and I’m not sure
we will be up for that.
The corrupt Roberts Supreme Court has to have a major overhaul and that will be a tough battle. 12 justices? True enforceable anti corruption rules? We’ll see if that can happen.
Until meaningful structural changes are pursued in a future government we will always be at jeopardy.
Excellent Asha.Thanks. Love your optimism if only because without some optimism, some “hope” we’ve lost before leaving the gate. “Project 1933” looks to be most worthy. Thanks for the tip. … Of all your reasons for optimism/hope at this moment I think #4. We Have Instantaneous Communication is the most critical given the roll Congress has not played in checking Trumpism. #4 Will at least get us to the Midterms. The midterms IMHO will mark an historic divide. The Dems should win big but without an aggressive Reform plan - they had better be perfecting and polishing it right now - I’m afraid our American Experiment in liberal democracy will crash and burn. Yes, we are that close to this happening. It’s 1932 in America!
Concerning free will and historical contingency, I recommend Yale historian Henry Ashby Turner, Jr.’s book "Hitler’s Thirty Days to Power: January 1933" (1996). Turner notes that Hitler was not elected by a majority of the German people, but rather appointed Chancellor by President Hindenburg as a result of intrigues among the top German political figures. Turner analyzes the choices of Hindenburg, General Schleicher, Chancellor von Papen, Hitler, and other leaders, as well as the Social Democratic, Catholic Center, Communist, and Nazi Parties. He recognizes that Hitler’s rise to power was shaped by Germany’s failed democratic revolution in 1848, the rise of right-wing nationalism during the country’s subsequent unification, the dominance of a semi-feudal aristocracy, working-class militancy, liberalism’s weakness, militarism, racism, defeat in World War I, the harsh Treaty of Versailles, hyper-inflation, and the Great Depression. But Turner insists that “versions of Hitler’s rise to power that focus on such historical antecedents have an unfortunate tendency to become deterministic. They give the impression that what happened was the inexorable product of great impersonal forces, that it was bound to happen, that there were no alternatives. Yet although such factors may in many cases have been necessary to the outcome, they were not sufficient.” There were “strong elements of contingency in the chain of events that brought Hitler to power.” Turner argues there is no convincing evidence that economic factors constrained top leaders’ choices; they were “free to make political decisions according to their own predilections”; and an authoritarian but not Nazi military regime was a “very real possibility.” “To explain Hitler’s acquisition of power in deterministic terms is to rule out the question of responsibility for that disastrous development or its far-reaching consequences. If his appointment as chancellor was the inexorable result of impersonal forces beyond the control of the individuals involved, then it would obviously be unjust to hold any of them responsible. . . . If, however, determinism is rejected, the question of responsibility must be addressed.” Republicans in parliament who preferred Hitler as a constitutionally appointed chancellor over Schleicher as a military ruler have responsibility; the large minority of Germans who voted for the Nazis have greater responsibility. But Hindenburg, Schleicher, and Papen have the greatest responsibility. Hitler’s rise to power “serves as a reminder that nothing except change itself is inevitable in human affairs, that the acts of individuals make a difference, and that heavy moral responsibility weighs upon those who wield control over the state.”
Thanks for laying out your logical analysis, which I found encouraging. That said, you have not quite convinced me about the Supreme Court. During the "reconstruction period" you foreshadow, the Supreme Court's guiding rules will need to be recalibrated, beginning with a reversal of Citizens United.
Historians, philosophers, theologians, and scientists have debated forever whether historical events are inevitable, or whether human beings have genuine free will and the ability to influence current and future events. There seems to be no definitive answer as a philosophical or scientific matter, but regardless, each of us can act as if we have free will. That was William James' position on this question. And it's notable that even people who are philosophically or theologically committed to hard forms of predeterminism, like Marxists and Calvinists, often act with great determination to shape the course of history just as if they believed in free will.
There’s a legitimate concern that Vance, as Thiel’s President, may represent something very similar but less showy than Trump. The Karp manifesto is a sign of the arrogance that comes with extreme wealth and power. I’m not sure we’re heading to a return to democracy so much as transitioning from Mussolini to Hitler.
And there are a number of pre-Trump concerns regarding various institutions; I’m not certain those have changed at all for the better, that they’ve truly come to see it was a mistake to back this kind of movement. Bill Barr comes to mind, who tried to distance himself but clearly wanted absolute power for the POTUS regardless. You can’t then complain after what he does with it. Someone like that needs to be driven out of government never to return.
While I take heart in Asha's far more learned and knowledgeable 'the glass is half full' outlook on history repeating itself than my own, it's hard to stifle my pessimism given so many setbacks our democracy has suffered and continues to suffer. That the Supreme Court would provide his wrongdoings with such blanket immunity, that the graft, corruption in this administration is happening with impunity, that we are committing and facilitating the commision of war crimes, that we have allowed ICE to run roughshod over human rights (and btw, nothing has happened to the ICE agents that murdered our citizens with cameras rolling), makes it difficult for me to be as optimistic. I will be ecstatic to be wrong on this one.
You are so right. This was an important piece. I think you said it perfectly. Our democracy is not good now. But we will make sure we vote at the midterms and change this.
This is an excellent historical and factual overview of both the past and present political situation we have allowed our democratic system to get itself into. And I am encouraged by recent events that are pushing back at the horrors of the MAGA fascists. It will be fascinating to watch the WHCD tonight to see just how Trump handles the crowd, as well as what he has to say, when things are clearly going to hell with his miserable failure in Iran. It would be wonderful if hundreds of people in the audience just stood up and walked out! And the November midterms and the 2028 presidential election can't get here soon enough!
Oh, God, I thought the same thing when I heard about it and it being the first time he's attending as president. It would be great to see him addressing an empty room!
Here's another ping in case you don't already have enough research to do. ;-) Would recommend the book (if you've not already read it or know the story), "Lest Innocent Blood Be Shed" by Philip Hallie. From amazon: "During the most terrible years of World War II, when inhumanity and political insanity held most of the world in their grip and the Nazi domination of Europe seemed irrevocable and unchallenged, a miraculous event took place in a small Protestant town in southern France called Le Chambon. There, quietly, peacefully, and in full view of the Vichy government and a nearby division of the Nazi SS, Le Chambon's villagers and their clergy organized to save thousands of Jewish children and adults from certain death."
Not my area of 'expertise' (more late 19th century Germany), but definitely my area of concentration - so love the topic. Some further context and connections: 2016 and 2024 could also equal traumatized societies, 16 because of 9/11, forever wars, Great Recession and tepid recovery with perception of Wall Street, not Main Street bailout making 'established elites' vulnerable. Not only was Weimar a nascent democracy, but the institutions - particularly justice system - never supported it, e.g., reaction to right-wing v left-wing violence (for latter 15-year+ sentences if not death, right averaged 4 months even for assassinations and attempted coups like Kapp and Beer Hall Putsches). Also amongst most elites, objection to AH wasn't authoritarian aspects but his non-aristocratic pedigree. Like in US, those elites as in Trump 1.0 thought they could use him to achieve their ends. I'd also add that like in 2016, the left was split in its opposition to the Nazis, Stalin telling the communists not to work with the socialists so a more united opposition now may bode well for the 2026 and 2028. The 32-35% of Trumpism is not unlike support for Nazis, and support for AH was actually declining when he was appointed chancellor - so don't sleep because of DJT's disapproval numbers! As to the optimistic note of your post, for me it is tempered by the 'third road' of an illiberal democracy; all those institutions and the Constitution would still be in place, but their democratic and individual rights aspects perverted particularly through the unitary executive theory. As to modern communication, important to note that it was AH's domination of the modern communication devices of radio and film which were crucial to his success so it is imperative that the opposition oppose Trump in the social media field. The key for me in your thoughtful post, Asha, is your focus on our agency. It is not the 'forces of history' which shall determine our fact, but rather our actions and inactions.
100% what happens from here on out is up to us. Still about 1/3 of eligible voters do not vote. Even for all the news of "record turnout" in recent elections, it has been for quite a while an approximately 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 type of election results, with the differences in the margins.
I've always been curious of the notion that in 1933 Germany most of the people did not know they were sliding from a very young democracy to Nazi-ism. Is there any record of a Thomas Paine-type person secretly putting out newsletters to inform the public of what was happening, and citing perhaps past historical examples of previous societies that went from relative freedom to more authoritarian? Though I imagine in the early 20th century there were less previous examples to cite from. Or perhaps if there was this attempt at communicating the past and current events to the German people, the Nazi's where that much more adept at shutting that down.
Optimism is an important concept. With optimism, we encourage 'action'. I hope to see more and bigger actions from folks that wish to reject autocrats, and encourage and support positive changes to maintain our democratic republic. Without change (reformation) we leave the cycle open. We know what needs to be fixed. Do we collectively have enough courage to start the job this year by rejecting the extremist right and cowards in Congress?
I’m not as optimistic as you are quite yet. The next election will be the real test of if our institutions actually hold and I’m still not sure how that is going to play out.
If there is a real leadership change in 2028 a lot of very hard structural change will be needed if we don’t want a repeat by another billionaire backed hand puppet and I’m not sure
we will be up for that.
The corrupt Roberts Supreme Court has to have a major overhaul and that will be a tough battle. 12 justices? True enforceable anti corruption rules? We’ll see if that can happen.
Until meaningful structural changes are pursued in a future government we will always be at jeopardy.
Agree Democrats must win the midterms. By most accounts, they will take the House. As to the Senate, they must take 4 states to win control (see https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/). I hope you are active in supporting those 4 races. See https://www.dscc.org/take-action/.
Excellent Asha.Thanks. Love your optimism if only because without some optimism, some “hope” we’ve lost before leaving the gate. “Project 1933” looks to be most worthy. Thanks for the tip. … Of all your reasons for optimism/hope at this moment I think #4. We Have Instantaneous Communication is the most critical given the roll Congress has not played in checking Trumpism. #4 Will at least get us to the Midterms. The midterms IMHO will mark an historic divide. The Dems should win big but without an aggressive Reform plan - they had better be perfecting and polishing it right now - I’m afraid our American Experiment in liberal democracy will crash and burn. Yes, we are that close to this happening. It’s 1932 in America!
Concerning free will and historical contingency, I recommend Yale historian Henry Ashby Turner, Jr.’s book "Hitler’s Thirty Days to Power: January 1933" (1996). Turner notes that Hitler was not elected by a majority of the German people, but rather appointed Chancellor by President Hindenburg as a result of intrigues among the top German political figures. Turner analyzes the choices of Hindenburg, General Schleicher, Chancellor von Papen, Hitler, and other leaders, as well as the Social Democratic, Catholic Center, Communist, and Nazi Parties. He recognizes that Hitler’s rise to power was shaped by Germany’s failed democratic revolution in 1848, the rise of right-wing nationalism during the country’s subsequent unification, the dominance of a semi-feudal aristocracy, working-class militancy, liberalism’s weakness, militarism, racism, defeat in World War I, the harsh Treaty of Versailles, hyper-inflation, and the Great Depression. But Turner insists that “versions of Hitler’s rise to power that focus on such historical antecedents have an unfortunate tendency to become deterministic. They give the impression that what happened was the inexorable product of great impersonal forces, that it was bound to happen, that there were no alternatives. Yet although such factors may in many cases have been necessary to the outcome, they were not sufficient.” There were “strong elements of contingency in the chain of events that brought Hitler to power.” Turner argues there is no convincing evidence that economic factors constrained top leaders’ choices; they were “free to make political decisions according to their own predilections”; and an authoritarian but not Nazi military regime was a “very real possibility.” “To explain Hitler’s acquisition of power in deterministic terms is to rule out the question of responsibility for that disastrous development or its far-reaching consequences. If his appointment as chancellor was the inexorable result of impersonal forces beyond the control of the individuals involved, then it would obviously be unjust to hold any of them responsible. . . . If, however, determinism is rejected, the question of responsibility must be addressed.” Republicans in parliament who preferred Hitler as a constitutionally appointed chancellor over Schleicher as a military ruler have responsibility; the large minority of Germans who voted for the Nazis have greater responsibility. But Hindenburg, Schleicher, and Papen have the greatest responsibility. Hitler’s rise to power “serves as a reminder that nothing except change itself is inevitable in human affairs, that the acts of individuals make a difference, and that heavy moral responsibility weighs upon those who wield control over the state.”
Thanks for this! And yes, the pod is really great in underscoring the many micro-moments in 1933 where people/elites could have chosen differently
Thanks for laying out your logical analysis, which I found encouraging. That said, you have not quite convinced me about the Supreme Court. During the "reconstruction period" you foreshadow, the Supreme Court's guiding rules will need to be recalibrated, beginning with a reversal of Citizens United.
Historians, philosophers, theologians, and scientists have debated forever whether historical events are inevitable, or whether human beings have genuine free will and the ability to influence current and future events. There seems to be no definitive answer as a philosophical or scientific matter, but regardless, each of us can act as if we have free will. That was William James' position on this question. And it's notable that even people who are philosophically or theologically committed to hard forms of predeterminism, like Marxists and Calvinists, often act with great determination to shape the course of history just as if they believed in free will.
Love your optimism. Thank goodness we have you!
There’s a legitimate concern that Vance, as Thiel’s President, may represent something very similar but less showy than Trump. The Karp manifesto is a sign of the arrogance that comes with extreme wealth and power. I’m not sure we’re heading to a return to democracy so much as transitioning from Mussolini to Hitler.
And there are a number of pre-Trump concerns regarding various institutions; I’m not certain those have changed at all for the better, that they’ve truly come to see it was a mistake to back this kind of movement. Bill Barr comes to mind, who tried to distance himself but clearly wanted absolute power for the POTUS regardless. You can’t then complain after what he does with it. Someone like that needs to be driven out of government never to return.
Thx for the tip re the Karp Manifesto. The little I learned about it when I searched struck me as ridiculous. From what I see of most Americans' concerns which are the things Abigail Spanberger ran on - "economic affordability, protecting Virginia’s economy from federal job cuts, strengthening public education, and supporting local law enforcement" (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrat-abigail-spanberger-wins-virginia-governors-race#:~:text=Spanberger's%20campaign%20emphasized%20economic%20issues%2C%20including:%20*,state%20with%20several%20hundred%20thousand%20federal%20employees) - this manifesto addresses none of that. It sounds like the lunatic ravings of someone deep in the Silicon Valley bubble who knows nothing about the lives of American voters.
The answer will be writ large in Nov. 🖖🫰
While I take heart in Asha's far more learned and knowledgeable 'the glass is half full' outlook on history repeating itself than my own, it's hard to stifle my pessimism given so many setbacks our democracy has suffered and continues to suffer. That the Supreme Court would provide his wrongdoings with such blanket immunity, that the graft, corruption in this administration is happening with impunity, that we are committing and facilitating the commision of war crimes, that we have allowed ICE to run roughshod over human rights (and btw, nothing has happened to the ICE agents that murdered our citizens with cameras rolling), makes it difficult for me to be as optimistic. I will be ecstatic to be wrong on this one.
My first time here, I wrote a comment, then somehow erased it.
In short: Universal Healthcare.
Needs to be hammered hard. America/ans First dad-gummet.
DJT talks 'we gotta protect America'. !!
From what?
The wealthy & corporate greed is what we need protection from (not to mention DJT criminal acts of selfishness).
The money is there, Democrats need to take-it.
AMERICANS first.
It seems that our president doesn't care about me, which is more than unfortunate.
You are so right. This was an important piece. I think you said it perfectly. Our democracy is not good now. But we will make sure we vote at the midterms and change this.
This is an excellent historical and factual overview of both the past and present political situation we have allowed our democratic system to get itself into. And I am encouraged by recent events that are pushing back at the horrors of the MAGA fascists. It will be fascinating to watch the WHCD tonight to see just how Trump handles the crowd, as well as what he has to say, when things are clearly going to hell with his miserable failure in Iran. It would be wonderful if hundreds of people in the audience just stood up and walked out! And the November midterms and the 2028 presidential election can't get here soon enough!
Oh, God, I thought the same thing when I heard about it and it being the first time he's attending as president. It would be great to see him addressing an empty room!
Here's another ping in case you don't already have enough research to do. ;-) Would recommend the book (if you've not already read it or know the story), "Lest Innocent Blood Be Shed" by Philip Hallie. From amazon: "During the most terrible years of World War II, when inhumanity and political insanity held most of the world in their grip and the Nazi domination of Europe seemed irrevocable and unchallenged, a miraculous event took place in a small Protestant town in southern France called Le Chambon. There, quietly, peacefully, and in full view of the Vichy government and a nearby division of the Nazi SS, Le Chambon's villagers and their clergy organized to save thousands of Jewish children and adults from certain death."
Not my area of 'expertise' (more late 19th century Germany), but definitely my area of concentration - so love the topic. Some further context and connections: 2016 and 2024 could also equal traumatized societies, 16 because of 9/11, forever wars, Great Recession and tepid recovery with perception of Wall Street, not Main Street bailout making 'established elites' vulnerable. Not only was Weimar a nascent democracy, but the institutions - particularly justice system - never supported it, e.g., reaction to right-wing v left-wing violence (for latter 15-year+ sentences if not death, right averaged 4 months even for assassinations and attempted coups like Kapp and Beer Hall Putsches). Also amongst most elites, objection to AH wasn't authoritarian aspects but his non-aristocratic pedigree. Like in US, those elites as in Trump 1.0 thought they could use him to achieve their ends. I'd also add that like in 2016, the left was split in its opposition to the Nazis, Stalin telling the communists not to work with the socialists so a more united opposition now may bode well for the 2026 and 2028. The 32-35% of Trumpism is not unlike support for Nazis, and support for AH was actually declining when he was appointed chancellor - so don't sleep because of DJT's disapproval numbers! As to the optimistic note of your post, for me it is tempered by the 'third road' of an illiberal democracy; all those institutions and the Constitution would still be in place, but their democratic and individual rights aspects perverted particularly through the unitary executive theory. As to modern communication, important to note that it was AH's domination of the modern communication devices of radio and film which were crucial to his success so it is imperative that the opposition oppose Trump in the social media field. The key for me in your thoughtful post, Asha, is your focus on our agency. It is not the 'forces of history' which shall determine our fact, but rather our actions and inactions.
100% what happens from here on out is up to us. Still about 1/3 of eligible voters do not vote. Even for all the news of "record turnout" in recent elections, it has been for quite a while an approximately 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 type of election results, with the differences in the margins.
I've always been curious of the notion that in 1933 Germany most of the people did not know they were sliding from a very young democracy to Nazi-ism. Is there any record of a Thomas Paine-type person secretly putting out newsletters to inform the public of what was happening, and citing perhaps past historical examples of previous societies that went from relative freedom to more authoritarian? Though I imagine in the early 20th century there were less previous examples to cite from. Or perhaps if there was this attempt at communicating the past and current events to the German people, the Nazi's where that much more adept at shutting that down.
Fascinating details of history.
Optimism is an important concept. With optimism, we encourage 'action'. I hope to see more and bigger actions from folks that wish to reject autocrats, and encourage and support positive changes to maintain our democratic republic. Without change (reformation) we leave the cycle open. We know what needs to be fixed. Do we collectively have enough courage to start the job this year by rejecting the extremist right and cowards in Congress?