1. What grade would you give the U.S. based on the “report card” above?
Well, I don’t give my students “gentlemen’s C’s” at the community college. On balance there is too much missed opportunity. We have squandered in many cases advantages that would’ve allowed us to get to a good position in this situation. That a bumbling oaf was signing things he probably didn’t understand resulted in us getting CISA as well as USCYBERCOM going on offense is not reassuring.
2. What are your biggest concerns regarding foreign election interference heading into 2024?
With the use of generative artificial intelligence many of these adversaries won’t to use artisanal tradecraft. The zone can be flooded pretty quickly now with far less human involvement. Anybody with a commodity computer on par spec-wise with at least an Apple MacBook Pro M1 can run a large language model generative AI locally using llamafile. Mistral 7B was released as open source and is likely not the last AI model floating freely in the world. Considering efforts like “Channel 1” trying to make news shows with AI-generated news anchors and scenery (see https://arstechnica.com/ai/2023/12/these-ai-generated-news-anchors-are-freaking-me-out/ for more), we’re going to possibly have many multiple descendants of Max Headroom trying to sway the election.
1. I'd give the U.S. a C or C+ on countering Russian election interference. The USG, most notably DoD and the USIC, seem to have a pretty good handle on things and are taking positive steps. The legislative avenue shows some promise, but it is hardly a sure thing, particularly when some proposed measures are sure to raise legitimate 1st Amendment issues.
Most importantly, I don't see where the American public is doing much to address the hyperpolarization and narcissism in American society. Hyperpolarization + narcissism equals a greater willingness to buy into and propagate election disinformation and conspiracy theories. As long as there's a demand for that kind of stuff, it's not going away.
2. My biggest concern about foreign election interference in 2024 is that the Iranians, PRC, Russians, and other nefarious actors are going to have just enough success encouraging Generation Z to stay home in November that Trump gets reelected.
Reading Maddows book Prequel she points out that it is the fact we have freedoms and laws that allow such an open society, that allow our adversaries easy access to warp and influence; in the 30’s the nazis even were able to get inside and use the franking privilege of various congressmen to mail their propaganda to all walks of life in this country.. taxpayer dollars actually funding Berlins direct mailing campaign.. now its our internet that makes it so easy..
Let’s hope that the Senate can pass the Honest Ads Act. After reading the proposal, I don’t understand why there would be any resistance to this bill.
I would sleep much better knowing these laws are in place and that something could be done about the social media talking heads who peddle conspiracy theories to create a following and income in the internet. Fox News and OAN fall into this category too.
I'm going to give a grade of incomplete. As this WaPo indicates (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/30/france-russia-interference-far-right/), the Russians are far from done playing their games. They know they don't have a superior economy, nor a superior military, so their path to 'victory' is by using disinformation, reflexive response, etc. to achieve their goals. I fear Americans are too often, been there, done that, dealt with it, moving on, and don't appreciate the long game which countries such as RU and China are playing. What gives me hope is that our intelligence services do understand this ... but that means the 'semester' isn't over yet.
I would give the US a 'Q'. We've been really stinking and an 'F' is too good at the moment. That said, at least we're trying now.
As far as the biggest problem, we have a Taliban that welcomes outside interference because they can't win a clean election. They can only win a Klan election 😂😂😂
Grade: B- since knowing is half the battle, and we know who/what/where/when the election interference will happen.
Concern: use of generative AI to expand the depth/breadth of misinformation and covert influence on campaigns. Because the targets (general public, and most political campaigns) are woefully undereducated and underarmed to defend against these tactics.
1. What grade would you give the US? -- I’m not a big fan of letter grades, but I would say “Exceeds Expectations.” As much as I hate to thank John Bolton for anything, it appears he had the interest of the US at heart during his tenure.
2. What are my biggest concerns regarding foreign election interference? -- Misinformation campaigns designed to split or suppress Democratic voters, especially around the conflict in Gaza. Also, misinformation campaigns designed to prolong the disconnect between people’s perceptions of the US economy and the actual excellent performance of the economy. Plus, who knows what else will crop up between now and November of 2024?
I had a long discussion of these issues with my very politically connected Christmas guest, who being from the LA entertainment business is wokety-wokety-woke. Liberal as I am, I am a rock red Reagan Republican next to her, yet she is so distressed over social media propaganda related to Israel and Gaza that she's ready to advocate German-style hate speech laws. I will never go there, but I have always been frustrated that our openness as a society makes us defenseless against information warfare to a degree that our opponents around the globe never experience, and if not curtailed and confronted in even some modest way, this endless storm of lies and deceit could well lead to bloodshed in the streets beyond anything we've yet experienced.
My time collecting intelligence on the DPRK gave me a good exemplar of total information control and how it has created a hermit kingdom where only the most trusted cadre of North Korea's Kim Crime Family have the vaguest notion of the real world outside the state's borders. This includes those in the information warfare units of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, that wields an increasingly dangerous and diverse electronic and information warfare capability currently being extended into outer space, and which controls and surveils their operatives who have access to the outside world to a degree that no average American could dream. It would certainly be a horror to see that come to the United States, but it's clearly Donald Trump's stated goal to make all US media Trump-controlled, just as all Russian media is Putin-controlled, all PRC media is Deng-controlled, all DPRK media is Kim-controlled, etc. I certainly don't want that, but I am fearfully certain our current inability and/or unwillingness to exercise even modestly meaningful control of the information space will be our destruction if our "marketplace of ideas" remains the Wild West it currently is. Dodge City was never in as precarious a position as we find ourselves today.
I say this with all due respect to those in our intelligence agencies who are doing their best with what they are given: While we have developed some very modest offensive capabilities, we are completely undefended as misinformation goes unidentified, unpublicized, unrefuted and unblocked every second of every day. We need new laws appropriate to this new world, yet our Congress is no longer capable of crafting and passing even the most uncomplicated and unimaginative legislation, let alone crafting laws that give the authority and tools to our agencies that are needed for this battle. The idiots in charge either are incapable of grasping the danger or embrace it as advantageous to their quest for power and have no interest in seeing it controlled. And that degree of dysfunction not only creates more opportunity to weaken and destroy our way of life, but daily convinces more Americans that our only safety in an increasingly threatening world may lie in strongman rule.
1. What grade would you give the U.S. based on the “report card” above?
Well, I don’t give my students “gentlemen’s C’s” at the community college. On balance there is too much missed opportunity. We have squandered in many cases advantages that would’ve allowed us to get to a good position in this situation. That a bumbling oaf was signing things he probably didn’t understand resulted in us getting CISA as well as USCYBERCOM going on offense is not reassuring.
2. What are your biggest concerns regarding foreign election interference heading into 2024?
With the use of generative artificial intelligence many of these adversaries won’t to use artisanal tradecraft. The zone can be flooded pretty quickly now with far less human involvement. Anybody with a commodity computer on par spec-wise with at least an Apple MacBook Pro M1 can run a large language model generative AI locally using llamafile. Mistral 7B was released as open source and is likely not the last AI model floating freely in the world. Considering efforts like “Channel 1” trying to make news shows with AI-generated news anchors and scenery (see https://arstechnica.com/ai/2023/12/these-ai-generated-news-anchors-are-freaking-me-out/ for more), we’re going to possibly have many multiple descendants of Max Headroom trying to sway the election.
1. I'd give the U.S. a C or C+ on countering Russian election interference. The USG, most notably DoD and the USIC, seem to have a pretty good handle on things and are taking positive steps. The legislative avenue shows some promise, but it is hardly a sure thing, particularly when some proposed measures are sure to raise legitimate 1st Amendment issues.
Most importantly, I don't see where the American public is doing much to address the hyperpolarization and narcissism in American society. Hyperpolarization + narcissism equals a greater willingness to buy into and propagate election disinformation and conspiracy theories. As long as there's a demand for that kind of stuff, it's not going away.
2. My biggest concern about foreign election interference in 2024 is that the Iranians, PRC, Russians, and other nefarious actors are going to have just enough success encouraging Generation Z to stay home in November that Trump gets reelected.
Reading Maddows book Prequel she points out that it is the fact we have freedoms and laws that allow such an open society, that allow our adversaries easy access to warp and influence; in the 30’s the nazis even were able to get inside and use the franking privilege of various congressmen to mail their propaganda to all walks of life in this country.. taxpayer dollars actually funding Berlins direct mailing campaign.. now its our internet that makes it so easy..
I will say this single report was worth the entire price of admission.
Let’s hope that the Senate can pass the Honest Ads Act. After reading the proposal, I don’t understand why there would be any resistance to this bill.
I would sleep much better knowing these laws are in place and that something could be done about the social media talking heads who peddle conspiracy theories to create a following and income in the internet. Fox News and OAN fall into this category too.
Resistance spelled backward is republican
Very much so' 2024 will be a fierce year...will Democracy prevail 🫣
I'm going to give a grade of incomplete. As this WaPo indicates (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/30/france-russia-interference-far-right/), the Russians are far from done playing their games. They know they don't have a superior economy, nor a superior military, so their path to 'victory' is by using disinformation, reflexive response, etc. to achieve their goals. I fear Americans are too often, been there, done that, dealt with it, moving on, and don't appreciate the long game which countries such as RU and China are playing. What gives me hope is that our intelligence services do understand this ... but that means the 'semester' isn't over yet.
I would give the US a 'Q'. We've been really stinking and an 'F' is too good at the moment. That said, at least we're trying now.
As far as the biggest problem, we have a Taliban that welcomes outside interference because they can't win a clean election. They can only win a Klan election 😂😂😂
Grade: B- since knowing is half the battle, and we know who/what/where/when the election interference will happen.
Concern: use of generative AI to expand the depth/breadth of misinformation and covert influence on campaigns. Because the targets (general public, and most political campaigns) are woefully undereducated and underarmed to defend against these tactics.
1. What grade would you give the US? -- I’m not a big fan of letter grades, but I would say “Exceeds Expectations.” As much as I hate to thank John Bolton for anything, it appears he had the interest of the US at heart during his tenure.
2. What are my biggest concerns regarding foreign election interference? -- Misinformation campaigns designed to split or suppress Democratic voters, especially around the conflict in Gaza. Also, misinformation campaigns designed to prolong the disconnect between people’s perceptions of the US economy and the actual excellent performance of the economy. Plus, who knows what else will crop up between now and November of 2024?
I had a long discussion of these issues with my very politically connected Christmas guest, who being from the LA entertainment business is wokety-wokety-woke. Liberal as I am, I am a rock red Reagan Republican next to her, yet she is so distressed over social media propaganda related to Israel and Gaza that she's ready to advocate German-style hate speech laws. I will never go there, but I have always been frustrated that our openness as a society makes us defenseless against information warfare to a degree that our opponents around the globe never experience, and if not curtailed and confronted in even some modest way, this endless storm of lies and deceit could well lead to bloodshed in the streets beyond anything we've yet experienced.
My time collecting intelligence on the DPRK gave me a good exemplar of total information control and how it has created a hermit kingdom where only the most trusted cadre of North Korea's Kim Crime Family have the vaguest notion of the real world outside the state's borders. This includes those in the information warfare units of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, that wields an increasingly dangerous and diverse electronic and information warfare capability currently being extended into outer space, and which controls and surveils their operatives who have access to the outside world to a degree that no average American could dream. It would certainly be a horror to see that come to the United States, but it's clearly Donald Trump's stated goal to make all US media Trump-controlled, just as all Russian media is Putin-controlled, all PRC media is Deng-controlled, all DPRK media is Kim-controlled, etc. I certainly don't want that, but I am fearfully certain our current inability and/or unwillingness to exercise even modestly meaningful control of the information space will be our destruction if our "marketplace of ideas" remains the Wild West it currently is. Dodge City was never in as precarious a position as we find ourselves today.
I say this with all due respect to those in our intelligence agencies who are doing their best with what they are given: While we have developed some very modest offensive capabilities, we are completely undefended as misinformation goes unidentified, unpublicized, unrefuted and unblocked every second of every day. We need new laws appropriate to this new world, yet our Congress is no longer capable of crafting and passing even the most uncomplicated and unimaginative legislation, let alone crafting laws that give the authority and tools to our agencies that are needed for this battle. The idiots in charge either are incapable of grasping the danger or embrace it as advantageous to their quest for power and have no interest in seeing it controlled. And that degree of dysfunction not only creates more opportunity to weaken and destroy our way of life, but daily convinces more Americans that our only safety in an increasingly threatening world may lie in strongman rule.